The Economy is Smoking Hot
The Purchasing Manager Indicators (PMIs) are great sentiment indicators that give us fairly current measurements of economic activity. Currently, they are at levels we see at cycle highs, right before the Fed crashes the party.
Here is the question: How do you think a removal of emergency stimulus will effect the economy and markets.
My own view is that the economy is almost fully recovered from the pandemic recession. The rapid growth numbers we see today will decelerate as the easy comparisons to 2020 pass behind us. As small businesses open, we will see normality return. The markets have run high on lots of Fed and Congressional stimulus. Both will be winding down soon. We expect a choppy ride in the markets over the next few quarters.
Robert Lloyds, CFA®
Chief Investment Officer
Lloyds Intrepid Wealth Management
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