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Central Markets by Robert Lloyd, CFA

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy of the  information cannot be guaranteed. All opinions and outlooks are subject to change.

  • Writer's pictureRobert Lloyd, CFA

Is the Recovery Toast?

If bank lending doesn't pick up soon, the recovery is toast...

With the yield curve flatter than the last 3 recoveries, bank incentives to lend are lower than we saw in the 1993, 2002 and 2009 recoveries. The real question is where will bank lending growth bottom? What do you think?

My own view is that there is SOME incentive to lend, but not much from a yield curve perspective. What I find most interesting about this analysis is how ordinary this lending cycle is from a Fed policy perspective: in 2018 the Fed tightened, the yield curve flattened, and lending subsequently contracted. It seems all quite ordinary even though we know 2020 was an extraordinary year for all markets and activity. With the current shallow yield curve profile, I am expecting middling growth going forward.

Robert Lloyds, CFA®

Chief Investment Officer

Lloyds Intrepid Wealth Management

Lloyds Intrepid LLC is doing business as Lloyds Intrepid Wealth Management. Lloyds Intrepid LLC offers investment advisory services in the State of Texas where registered and in other jurisdictions where exempted. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Lloyds Intrepid LLC and its advisers do not provide legal, tax or accounting advice. Lloyds Intrepid LLC formulates retirement plans, investment strategies, portfolio construction and investment due diligence for clients with signed investment advisory agreements with us. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy of the information cannot be guaranteed. All opinions and outlooks are subject to change.

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