The rallies are getting sold...
There was a drumbeat of bad news today: slower vaccine rollout, sluggish PMI indicators and an impending antitrust case against Google.
Fed plans to give money directly to the citizens was ignored because it requires Congressional action.
Short term, the market is oversold and trying to bounce. Long term, the market is rolling over. Result, traders are selling into rallies as we saw today.
After the selloff we experienced in early September, investors were hoping the combination of positive vaccine news, dovish Fed speakers, and economic recovery would be enough to get the market moving higher again. None of that happened today. Dr. Fauci, the head of the NIAID (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases), testified before Congress today and said widespread availability of the vaccine may not happen till April 2021. Fed speakers were out talking about giving money directly to the people and the bond market shrugged. Purchasing Manager Indicators (PMIs) came out with sluggish growth indicators. And to top it off, the Federal government is ready to go after Google with an antitrust lawsuit.
The short term charts are interesting because they are oversold and trying to bounce higher.
Unfortunately, the long term charts for the SPX and NDX are overbought, peaking and beginning major moves down. This results in "sell the rally" market behavior as we saw today. It is still possible we see the market move up short term, but there is a lot of pressure bearing down as traders either take profits on long term holdings or minimize short term losses. Either way, the news flow and charts are working against those hoping for a continued rally.
The Nasdaq 100 monthly chart shows the peaking action most clearly. Remember, these technology stocks were the generals that led the charge higher. The monthly chart indicates the move is over and the generals are retreating.
We are expecting the markets to weaken and volatility to increase as we move into October and November. Our portfolios are positioned accordingly, are yours?
Robert Lloyd, CFA® is President and Chief Investment Officer of Lloyds Intrepid Wealth Management, and author of the book CENTRAL MARKETS. Since 1994, he has held positions as a trader, analyst, portfolio manager, and wealth manager while working at Invesco, CCM Opportunistic Advisors, and Merrill Lynch. In another life, he served 8 years in the U.S. Navy as a Naval Flight Officer flying in the S-3B Viking. For a complete resumé, visit his profile at LinkedIn.
Lloyd holds a BBA from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA from the University of Chicago.
Lloyd is a Chartered Financial Analyst.
Lloyds Intrepid LLC is doing business as Lloyds Intrepid Wealth Management. Lloyds Intrepid LLC offers investment advisory services in the State of Texas where registered and in other jurisdictions where exempted. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Lloyds Intrepid LLC and its advisers do not provide legal, tax or accounting advice. Lloyds Intrepid LLC formulates retirement plans, investment strategies, portfolio construction and investment due diligence for clients with signed investment advisory agreements with us. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy of the information cannot be guaranteed. All opinions and outlooks are subject to change.
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