Another wrinkle to the inflation and interest rate question is the evidence of economic
slowdown. We know that stimulus programs have been gradually running out of money
for the last six months, delivering a corresponding slowdown in economic growth. While
not an imminent recession, it indicates a deceleration to the natural rate of 1-1.5% GDP
If we look at broad measures of economic activity in the Purchasing Manager's (PMI)
survey and Consumer Confidence, we see definite signs of weakness in both. The PMI's
are not indicating recession yet, but the Consumer Confidence numbers indicate a very
sour mood in the country.
Robert Lloyd, CFA®
Chief Investment Officer
Lloyds Intrepid Wealth Management
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