Getting Nervous, Yet?
The S&P 500 is up 15%/yr for the last ten years and up 18.5%/yr over the last three. Is this normal? A recent survey indicates individual investors expect 17.5% equity appreciate in excess of inflation next year.
Just for fun, I've attached some valuation slides.
Here is the Natixis report on investor expectations https://www.im.natixis.com/us/resources/2021-natixis-global-survey-of-individual-investors-executive-overview. My own view is that investor expectations are completely unrealistic and that the Fed and other central banks are supporting extraordinary market conditions. The risk is that inflation and higher rates change the game. Too early to tell at this point.
Robert Lloyd, CFA®
Chief Investment Officer
Lloyds Intrepid Wealth Management
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