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Central Markets by Robert Lloyd, CFA

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy of the  information cannot be guaranteed. All opinions and outlooks are subject to change.

  • Writer's pictureRobert Lloyd, CFA

Employment Lags The Recovery

Employment Lags Recovery

There is a glaring bifurcation between the profits/GDP growth story and employment. GDP has recently hit a new all-time high, yet employment remains stuck well below its 2020 peak. The causes won't be known clearly for several more quarters, but some likely candidates are 1) generous unemployment insurance discouraging a return to work, 2) small businesses permanently closed, and 3) supply chain disruptions slowing business re-opening.

My own view is that this is temporary. Fiscal stimulus from Congress has given a powerful push to spending and economic growth. Extra unemployment benefits and a slow reopening of major states like California and New York are inhibiting the employment recovery. As we see rent forbearance, mortgage deferral and supplemental unemployment time out in the next few months, many workers should be out knocking on doors looking for work.

Robert Lloyds, CFA®

Chief Investment Officer

Lloyds Intrepid Wealth Management

Lloyds Intrepid LLC is doing business as Lloyds Intrepid Wealth Management. Lloyds Intrepid LLC offers investment advisory services in the State of Texas where registered and in other jurisdictions where exempted. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Lloyds Intrepid LLC and its advisers do not provide legal, tax or accounting advice. Lloyds Intrepid LLC formulates retirement plans, investment strategies, portfolio construction and investment due diligence for clients with signed investment advisory agreements with us. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy of the information cannot be guaranteed. All opinions and outlooks are subject to change.

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