Bear markets provide rallies that allow you to re-balance or de-risk your portfolio to suit your needs. While I'm not making a prediction about the future, I am encouraging you to take stock in your strategy based on the latest guidance from the Fed. (Here is the Fed note if you need a reminder: https://www.lloydsintrepid.com/post/fed-chairman-jerome-powell-gives-a-speech) Robert Lloyd, CFA® Chief Investment Officer Lloyds Intrepid Wealth Management Lloyds Intrepid LLC is doi

Well, just looking at inflation (headline CPI) and real GDP growth, 2022 is shaping up to look very similar to 1970: high inflation with negative real GDP growth. It's fair to say we are not in Kansas anymore, Toto. Robert Lloyd, CFA® Chief Investment Officer Lloyds Intrepid Wealth Management Lloyds Intrepid LLC is doing business as Lloyds Intrepid Wealth Management. Lloyds Intrepid LLC offers investment advisory services in the State of Texas where registered and in other ju

Make it stop! When will the bear market end and things get back to normal? The answer is easy if you think about the market's Circle of Life: Contraction, Recovery, Expansion, and Slowdown. Each phase has its own characteristics, so if you want to know when pain will stop, you must recognize where you are in the cycle. The stock market is usually early, peaking before Contractions and bottoming before Recovery. So, what are the typical signs of Contraction? 1. Falling inflati

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell normally comes across as a mild mannered Wall Street lawyer. That is not the face he showed to the world on August 26th in Jackson Hole. Rather, he had tough words for the markets and the economy. These words matter because they are an indication of future Fed interest rate policy and the associated implications for employment, earnings and GDP growth. In his 9 minute speech, he had 3 "lessons" to share with the audience: Lesson #1: Cent

Despite all the talk about fighting inflation, the Federal Reserve policy stance is anything but restrictive. By comparing the Federal Funds policy rate (FF), the US 10-year Treasury yield (10yr), and inflation, it is our view that current Fed policies are highly supportive of the current inflationary regime. While we are likely to see inflation fall as we travel through recession, let's not kid ourselves where the Fed stands on this. By any objective policy measure, they are