We read lots of research, both on and off Wall Street. One of the best and most interesting writers about bonds, interest rates and Fed policy is Lacy Hunt at Hoisington Investment Management Company. For years he correctly forecast lower rates and moderate inflation, providing soothing words when CPI would rise and the Fed talked tough. The Hoisington message is changing: "These and many other harbingers of recession constitute a favorable environment for long-term bond inve

Retiring in 2023 is looking painful. Your pension lump-sum will fall as interest rates rise and comparing today to 2018 ignores the stark reality of 8.5% inflation. We really don't know how high the Fed will go: 2%, 3%, 4%, or higher. If the economy doesn't buckle, those rates are going much higher than the market is expecting. Food for thought. Call us if you'd like to discuss. 281.402.8284. Robert Lloyd, CFA® Chief Investment Officer Lloyds Intrepid Wealth Management Lloyds

There is an old Wall Street saying from the 1990s: "The Consumer Never Dies!" Unfortunately, it is starting to look like the 1970s. Here is the University of Michigan Buying Conditions... Robert Lloyd, CFA® Chief Investment Officer Lloyds Intrepid Wealth Management Lloyds Intrepid LLC is doing business as Lloyds Intrepid Wealth Management. Lloyds Intrepid LLC offers investment advisory services in the State of Texas where registered and in other jurisdictions where exempted.

Inflation Psychology article from University of Michigan. A great read from the team that produces the critical Consumer Sentiment Survey data. Summary: It is the 1970s all over again! Plan accordingly. https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=69760 Robert Lloyd, CFA® Chief Investment Officer Lloyds Intrepid Wealth Management Lloyds Intrepid LLC is doing business as Lloyds Intrepid Wealth Management. Lloyds Intrepid LLC offers investment advisory services in the Stat

Schwab comments on earnings post-Ukraine action: earnings are weakening...A good, quick read if you are interested. War: Impact on Earnings | Advisor Services (schwab.com) Robert Lloyd, CFA® Chief Investment Officer Lloyds Intrepid Wealth Management Lloyds Intrepid LLC is doing business as Lloyds Intrepid Wealth Management. Lloyds Intrepid LLC offers investment advisory services in the State of Texas where registered and in other jurisdictions where exempted. Registration doe

Another good WSJ article documenting the insider trading problem and how it hurts active management. There is a lot of good research on this topic that I covered in my book Central Markets. Essentially, insider trading rewards those who "cheat" to front run the market on imminent news and punishes those following the law and only trade on public information. No law enforcement means cheaters always win. This is one major reason active managers in bonds and equities repeatedly