


Robert Lloyd, CFA
- Feb 5, 2022
Some weekend reading: our February monthly research note...
https://conta.cc/3Hmn19N Robert Lloyd, CFA® Chief Investment Officer Lloyds Intrepid Wealth Management Lloyds Intrepid LLC is doing business as Lloyds Intrepid Wealth Management. Lloyds Intrepid LLC offers investment advisory services in the State of Texas where registered and in other jurisdictions where exempted. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Lloyds Intrepid LLC and its advisers do not provide legal, tax or accounting advice. Lloyds Intre


Robert Lloyd, CFA
- Feb 3, 2022
The Fed Is Raising Rates Into An Economic Slowdown
Another wrinkle to the inflation and interest rate question is the evidence of economic slowdown. We know that stimulus programs have been gradually running out of money for the last six months, delivering a corresponding slowdown in economic growth. While not an imminent recession, it indicates a deceleration to the natural rate of 1-1.5% GDP growth. If we look at broad measures of economic activity in the Purchasing Manager's (PMI) survey and Consumer Confidence, we see def


Robert Lloyd, CFA
- Feb 3, 2022
How High Will The Fed Go?
The big question is how high will the Fed raise interest rates? If we compare key rates like consumer price inflation, Federal Funds rate and the US 10-year Treasury Bond yield, it is obvious that rates could go much higher. If the Fed actually followed the data, as they say they do, Federal Funds rates would already be well above zero based on the much higher rate of consumer inflation. That is not what is happening. There are strong political pressures at work here: Washing