Yogi Berra - Navy veteran, baseball legend and humorist (1925-2015). Here is our deep dive analysis on inflation. Are we about to experience 1970s-type inflation in the 2020s? The short answer is no, but there are several important parallels to the 1970's and the low-inflation environment of the 2010's is unlikely to return anytime soon. • Inflation is affected by several different factors that include government policies and consumer psychology. • The 1970's experienced many

Maybe not "transitory" after all, Chairman Powell? The current score is Inflation 5: Fed 0. We've been following 1 year and 2 year inflation readings and they aren't very flattering. Both are at multi-year highs and indicate there is some sustainability to higher inflation regardless of the cause (Fed, supply chain, Covid, etc.) The Fed has 2 mandates: promote low inflation and full employment. Apparently, these are mutually exclusive goals. So, aside from the misery inflatio

No wonder Consumer Confidence stinks...we are 5 million jobs short of the pre-Covid high in total US employment. The prevailing Narrative is that the economy is on fire: earnings are great, help-wanted signs are everywhere and inflation is a problem. However, we don't see that heat in the important payrolls and Consumer Confidence data. Does anyone think this improves when the Fed raises rates? Robert Lloyd, CFA® Chief Investment Officer Lloyds Intrepid Wealth Management Llo

Once is chance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action. (Ian Fleming) Another Fed leader caught trading ahead of the market. Now we have 3 major Fed decision makers using insider knowledge for self-enrichment. Vice-chairman Clarida reportedly traded the day before a major Fed announcement. Is it credible that he didn't know? Nooo waaay. But life is full of ironies. He was reportedly selling bonds and buying stocks on February 27th of 2020. Does anyone remember the

Should we care about $1.6 #TRILLION in the Fed's Reverse Repo facility? YES! The Federal Reserve stimulates the financial system with two main tools: 1) cutting interest rates or, 2) adding cash to the financial system by buying bonds and increasing bank reserves (better known as quantitative easing or QE). There is another Fed program called the Reverse Repo facility, but let's call it what it really is: The Bank and Money Market Fund Cash Deposit Account at the Fed. If you

What is the message of the markets? Do markets tell us anything, anymore? Maybe a little bit. Many people think the markets are manipulated by the central banks and large funds. To a limited extent, there is some truth to this, but the markets are much bigger than any one central bank or fund. Markets still react to changing economic conditions and different central banks make policies that they think are best for their own country and markets. But the real question is, how h