With all the turmoil over the vaccine's effectiveness and potential mandates getting handed out by OSHA, I thought it might be helpful to look at the actual data on the pandemic. So, here you go, fresh from the CDC website. And yes, I know there are problems with the data, but what else are we going to look at? Conclusion, this wave not as deadly and case count easing. Robert Lloyd, CFA® Chief Investment Officer Lloyds Intrepid Wealth Management Lloyds Intrepid LLC is doing b

Why did the sentiment indicators peak in the 1st Quarter? Now we know. A few weeks ago, I asked the question what happened in the first quarter to turn all the growth metrics down (original post link in comments section). Now we know the answer, thanks to Barry Bannister at Stifel. Global money supply growth peaked and began to move down. Ignore for a minute the inflation headlines. Global money supply changes directly affect markets and indirectly affect real economies. So t

Insider trading laws apply to all equally, but some are more equal than others. 2 Fed regional presidents resigned in disgrace for trading their portfolios during the pandemic and emergency Fed policy implementation. (But they'll keep all their gains, I'm sure.) It seems quaint that politicians once used blind trusts to manage their affairs when in office. I guess those days are long past. I hear there is a Tic Tok channel that follows Congressional trading patterns, but I'm

Another slide from last week's consumer report indicates consumers' buying mood is really sour. When did we last see buying mood plummet like this? The late 1960s as inflation began to rise. Today, we see many similarities due to supply constraints. Remember the OPEC oil crisis? This was also a supply constraint that affected inflation and economic growth. So, unless we see the supply chain quickly sort itself out, expect inflation to remain higher than everyone wants. Oh, th

Our economy is driven by consumer spending and confidence. High confidence leads to spending, investment, activity and employment. Low confidence leads to...well, you know. I've graphed last weeks consumer inflation expectations and confidence indicators together. They are "interesting." Robert Lloyd, CFA® Chief Investment Officer Lloyds Intrepid Wealth Management Lloyds Intrepid LLC is doing business as Lloyds Intrepid Wealth Management. Lloyds Intrepid LLC offers investment

August inflation did not go much higher as many expected. Why? Yesterday, the BLS reported 5.3% year-over-year inflation and 3.3% 2-year inflation. It wasn't a total disaster, but it is still high and many expected worse numbers. What is missing? The Bureau of Labor Statistics says urban inflation for housing was a measly 2.8% year-over-year last month. Does anyone believe that after looking at rent and housing prices this summer? It is likely these readings are going to slow

Two critical data points on the economy came in today and both were disappointing. Purchasing Manager Indicators from the US and China have clearly peaked and are turning down, while US Nonfarm Payrolls delivered a huge disappointment. Possible causes: Covid Delta variant outbreak changing behavior, higher inflation readings everywhere, and central banks tightening policy in Russia, Brazil, Norway, Korea and Mexico are good candidates. Perhaps the Fed draining $1 trillion in

Maybe. He does state that he is worried about budget deficits and inflation. Last month he wrote an open letter to Fed Chair Jerome Powell complaining about inflation. Today, he wrote an open letter to fellow Senators and Congressmen regarding the size of the $3.5 trillion stimulus currently in the works. Sen. Manchin says it is too big and will negatively affect the deficit and inflation. (see links in comments) The size and annual spending of the current stimulus plans is a

When will the central banks react to inflation? Well, some already are. Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Norway and Korea's CBs have already started raising interest rates. Here in the US, the markets are focused on when the Fed reduces Quantitative Easing (the policy of buying bonds to put cash into the banking system.) But what if they started sopping up the cash in June with their Reverse Repo Facility? Investors are parking $1.2 TRILLION in that account! Did the Fed start their ti

"It's really hard to make predictions; especially about the future." Many baseball fans will recognize this quip from Yogi Berra, the legendary catcher and manager of the New York Yankees. While known as a humorist, many of the things he said were funny because they were true. Wednesday morning we had August reports on employment and factory activity. It was a good-news/bad-news situation. Employment indications were weak, while factory activity indications were strong. It is